INTERNAL DIVISIONS AND PERSONAL AMBITIONS – REASON THE OPPOSITION IS GIVING UP ON ELECTIONS

BANJA LUKA, SEPTEMBER 27 /SRNA/ – The withdrawal of the opposition from early presidential elections in Republika Srpska is becoming increasingly certain, and the truth is simple – they are not staying out of elections because they do not want to, but because they cannot win them.

From the beginning of this crisis in BiH, caused by the unelected foreigner Christian Schmidt and the unconstitutional Court and Prosecutor’s Office of BiH, the opposition has behaved inadequately. Instead of being principled and standing with Republika Srpska and its institutions, they acted confused and aimless. They irrationally rejected a Government of National Unity, and showed a semblance of unity only when Sarajevo’s “Troika,” with Schmidt’s assistance, promised them power at the BiH level. Nothing came of it – they got zero, and became badly compromised. The answer to the question of why they are pulling back must be sought in the motives of the actors themselves. And the motives are not politics, but personal interests and ambitions. DRAŠKO STANIVUKOVIĆ – A PLAN FOR SELF-PROMOTION From the beginning of the unlawful process against the President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, Draško Stanivuković saw it as an opportunity for himself. His idea was clear: through a pact with the international community and Schmidt, seize power next year, and bring into BiH-level government those parts of the opposition otherwise not inclined toward him. His calculation was simple – he had nothing to lose, and everything to gain. He also tried to float the idea of a "neutral academic figure" behind whom everyone could rally. When he realized this looked too much like the proposals of the Serbian protest movement, which offered up a university rector as a change head figure, he quickly abandoned it. It is whispered in political circles that even the episode with Nebojša Vukanović and his failed candidacy for Minister of Security was no coincidence, but rather a maneuver in which Stanivuković played a key role, again in coordination with Sarajevo and foreigners. When all those games collapsed, Stanivuković’s true goal became even more obvious – to strip the rest of the opposition of any credibility, and to enter the new year as the sole authority around whom the opposition could rally. SDS – FROM A PATRIOTIC OPTION TO A PLATFORM FOR PERSONAL AMBITIONS If any party should have understood the seriousness of the attacks on Republika Srpska, it was SDS. Instead of defending the principles and institutions of Srpska, SDS showed only weakness and division. Instead of a patriotic, firm option, it became a platform for the petty personal ambitions. The result? The resignation of party president Milan Miličević and complete disorientation. Even worse – SDS agreed to play along with Sarajevo, Schmidt and Stanivuković, and in the end got nothing. Their only concrete "success" is Darko Babalj’s seat in the Collegium of the BiH Parliamentary Assembly, from where he began sending servile messages to Sarajevo and the international community – so humiliating that even the founders of SDS would be ashamed. His goal? To crush the competition within his own ranks and install his protege Marinko Božović at the head of SDS. The main obstacle is Ljubiša Petrović, the mayor of Bijeljina. The plan? Push Ljubiša into a hopeless presidential candidacy in order to spend him politically and remove him from the path. It is said that Vlado Trišić of BN Television, from whom Ljubiša has "slipped away," also has a hand in this. Sources claim Petrović has seen through that maneuver and is building an alternative path with Jelena Trivić and Vukanović. THE REST OF THE OPPOSITION – A FRACTURED SCENE Jelena Trivić – waiting and praying that Stanivuković fails, because that gives her some chance. Within the party, she says her goal is the prime minister’s position, though in reality she is struggling just to politically survive. Nebojša Vukanović – rushed headlong toward the post of Minister of Security, only to realize too late that it was a trap from the kitchens of Sarajevo and Stanivuković. When they offer him something, he can be sure of one thing – they do not mean him well. Vukota Govedarica – by being elected for the mayor of Gacko, he has returned to the scene. Neither he has the stomach for SDS, nor does SDS have the stomach for him. Learning from Vukanović’s example, he carefully weighs each step and knows well: in this opposition, the one who nominates you is the best guarantee you have no chance. Igor Radojičić – his "reconciliation" with Stanivuković, after everything they said about each other, looks like a political absurdity. Perverse, unnatural, and comical. Igor Crnadak – it is an open secret he has no future in PDP. Stanivuković has sidelined him in several election cycles. Crnadak saw his salvation in the presidential elections – calculating that, if SNSD boycotted, on low turnout he could surface as a candidate with a few percent. Like the "false Tsar Šćepan Mali," he hoped such a maneuver could extend his political life. CONCLUSION – THE OPPOSITION IS RUNNING AWAY BECAUSE IT KNOWS IT HAS NO CHANCE Behind all the statements and moves of the opposition lies a sad fact: they are more interested in deceiving each other than in helping Republika Srpska. Their cooperation with Sarajevo and Schmidt brought nothing but humiliation and internal fractures. Perhaps the best offer came from Milorad Dodik – a Government of National Unity. In it the opposition would not have lost much, and might even have learned something. But blinded by hatred, they rejected it as well. In the end, the bare truth remains: the opposition fled into personal strategies, ambitions and motives, and ended up against the wall – with the decision not to participate in elections because it knows it would surely lose.